Pack prognostication

Another season of professional football has kicked off and my yearly obsession now kicks into high gear. It's hard to believe in many ways, but we're here. I need to lay down my prediction before things get underway for the Packers. This year? 9 and 7, and if things break right, a playoff berth. It's pretty safe to say that they better not count on another last minute Phoenix win to advance (this year we'll have to hope Washington takes care of business if it comes down to that).

As a Packer fan in good standing (entering my thirty sixth season) ^[1], I wish I could say that it'll be better. Anything else is wishful thinking (and I wish I could think it). There was only one year (1996) where I felt like everything was in place for Green Bay to take it all, and they did (that was when I began to hate TJ Simers who downplayed every positive, all season long). The following year, Simers was oblivious to the negatives when it was obvious that they'd fallen off a bit (and he kept it up, all season long). Of course, Green Bay lost to Denver in the Super Bowl and Simers got sucked onto page two where I've been trying to dodge him ever since.

This year just feels like treading water.

While many remember last years wild finish, I still have the playoff game against Philly on an external drive. As I see it, 4^th and 26 should never have happened. Before that, with 2:30 left and a 17 - 14 lead, the Packer offense had to make that first down on a 4^th and 1 at the Eagle 40. Everyone knew the defense was a little shaky, the offense had to protect the lead by holding onto the ball. They'd gone for it in the first half and failed (a bad move perhaps, but this fan won't judge that one), but that was then and this was the time. After playing games trying to draw the Eagles offside, they punted from the Philly 40, and Josh Bidwell punted into the end zone. Oops, back to the 20.

From there, the defense gave up a big running play for a first down. Then they had a nice sack on a blitz, got away with some contact an a call that seemed proper and then on 4^th and 26 they allowed a soft coverage completion over the middle to Freddie Mitchell for the first down. For those who might be inclined to disagree, I think the spot was pretty good.

And then they really fell apart (Mike McKenzie had a shot at the interception on the first attempt to put it into the end zone) the iggles scored and we move to overtime. And that was that in the big picture, even if it doesn't cover a good stand by the defense to get the ball back and a major mistake by Favre on the first play after the Pack got the ball back in OT. Blame it on 4^th and 26.

You have to play to your strength when the chips are on the line. Mike Sherman and Tom Rossley elected to punt and hope the defense would hold. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell paid the price with his job.

That's so yesterday... what about today?

The offense should be just about the same. A great quarterback, offensive line (likely the last year that crew stays together), great primary back, a good and improving set improving set of wideouts and tight ends. If Brett can learn to trust Javon Walker, he seems to have the downfield separation capability we haven't seen since Robert Brooks was Favre's favorite target. The play calling is still being done Rossley, and he's still conservative and predictable.

On the other side of the ball, the younger starters have another year under their belt, Nick Barnett included and should be improved. Ahmad Carroll will be asked to replace holdout Mike McKenzie (who's playing the mo' money game). Otherwise, last years shaky defense looks just as shaky. While it remains possible that they'll gel into a solid unit under new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik, we'll believe it when we see it. Any improvement here will translate to more wins and less losses.

Lest we forget, B.J. Sander was drafted in the 3rd round to replace Bidwell. That experiment hasn't gone too well. To compensate, they're also holding onto Bryan Barker (after punting for the Redskins last year, he's had a lot of recent practice but he's also getting up into George Blanda type years).

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1 — I joined this roller coaster as a kid when they were at the top and learned many lessons while the team floundered for most of twenty years (I lost a running yearly bet with a friend on the Dallas game for a long darned time). The last decade has been the most fun as a fan.

Posted by Dave at September 9, 2004 11:42 PM