|
|
Just a quick update for now...
The world is orange, again. Ash has been falling pretty steadily here for much of the morning.
There are more than 3,000 fire fighters involved and 16,985 acres burned according to a press conference that has just ended.
The Star has a good map of yesterday's fire areas. Also of note, this photo from somewhere in Oak Park this morning.
The Ventura Fire page has some general information and this Thousand Oaks news bulletin has some information about all the activity in the area of Conejo Creek Park (Janss and the 23 freeway).
The Thousand Oaks Teen Center, Goebel Senior Center and Conejo Creek Park North are being used as the Topanga Fire Incident Center. Traffic along Janss Road may be heavy at times.
The report right now is that the fire has burned 3,500 acres and is 5% contained.
This image was posted by a Moorpark student this afternoon:
|
We've also heard that Oak Park is the next big target? If it runs the ridge between Simi and Oak Park things could get very interesting here.
I just can't get over the idea that all these fires broke out on the first day of this years Santa Ana winds. Two days ago it rained on me in Moorpark and today we've got independent fires near Moorpark College, in the Santa Susana Pass (and Calabasas) and in Moreno Valley.
I've been trying to catch up with the fires around the area ever since Sarah alerted me to the rest of the world when she got home from work. We left shortly afterward for Harley's and as we drove into Simi Valley on Tierra Rejada Road, the two fires on the east side of the valley were distinct. Traffic was a mess, probably because of the 118 freeway closure through the Santa Susana Pass. The traffic on southbound 23 exceeded the usual morning rush hour problem and was still at a virtual standstill as far north as Tierra Rejada and probably looped around to the 118 and back into Simi.
At the bowling alley, the topic of conversation was the fire near Moorpark College. Several people live in the area and had stories to tell about some tense moments this afternoon.
It seemed impossibly hot as we left Harley's at about 8:30 this evening. The smell of smoke in the air served as a reminder to what was happening outside the little cocoon we'd lived in for the last couple hours. As we drove north west out of Simi, the southern fire was burning brightly on the east side.
There's a lot of confusion. KCAL is the only station doing local coverage (FOX might be doing so now). KCAL has talked about the fire burning south and west, both into Ventura County and into Agoura. This part of a VCStar article confused me...
A 100-acre fire burned through brush in the Chatsworth area of Northwest Los Angeles County getting close to the Ventura County line before it was contained early Thursday, authorities said.
I read that about 10 PM which is still Wednesday. Yeah, OK, wire services but it still caught me at first.
Either way, nothing seems contained at this point.
When Jon got his cast off last week, I was worried about our usual wild piggy back ride around the house and up the stairs to bed so I had to come up with something new to have fun with. My inspiration was the map of the world we'd put over his bed this summer. I'm certain that we'll resume the crazy rides to bed sometime soon but my new idea seems to have taken a firm hold.
We'd started with me asking him to pick a country he'd heard of but not found on his map. He picked Saudi Arabia, so I helped him find it and his task was to remember it for the next night. A few days in, he's really getting into it and we're both learning things.
He'd rushed into my office earlier tonight to ask how to pronounce the latest country (Afghanistan) and when it was time, was eager to run through the list we'd learned thus far. When I picked Nicaragua as the new county for tomorrow, he was a little put off (he wanted to go back to southeast asia) but once we'd targeted the new area, he quickly found a positive memory. I'd forgotten all about his report on Costa Rica last year, but he hadn't and I got an earful on Nicaragua's southern neighbor.
Kids can find fun in anything as long as someone else shares the bug. I think we're going to put a big dent in the world this fall.
If you live in SoCal there are always lights in the sky and if you have some time to stop and watch, they're running this way and that. Out here, we've got a never ending series of blinkin' and winkin' happening as flights bound for Burbank and LAX slide overhead near the county border.
Occasionally, we get a surprise.
As I left Pasadena last evening (after yet another day long meeting) around nightfall, I noticed a zig zag streak that was rather surreal. It was so thick and white that the darkness seemed wrong somehow and it appeared to be a giant crack in the sky. Had I any idea how to operate the camera in my new Treo, I'd have pulled off the road and snapped something. It looked like a missile launch but I was busy. Instead, I put it out of my mind (at freeway speeds, attention to the road is paramount).
I rode most of the way home in silence, just trying to finish dealing with all the input of the day. As I rounded the bend in Moorpark, I flipped on the radio and heard a slightly incoherent story on KNX about reports of 'lights in the sky' and then a description of the launch at Vandenburg.
I'd planned to go find a good image, but one found me first. TWC has a nice shot (is that Riverside to the north?) that looks like it was taken about twenty minutes before I noticed it.
As another terrible storm wanders toward the Gulf Coast the folks at The Interdictor have been continuing one NOLA story and Daniel Gifford had this today: Countdown To Rita.
When I'd checked the Hurricane Rita status this morning, I'd had an odd twinge about the situation. With Galveston and Houston being evacuated, those left in Houston would be not only the unfortunate of that city but also all those who'd relocated from NOLA (and the vicinity).
I think we're out of giant domed evacuation centers (publicly financed and long abandoned by those who begged for them) in the southeast (Atlanta may have something, but would you risk it? Would Atlanta?) If you're a tad paranoid, you might wonder how far you need to run to avoid the deluge without worrying about syndication kicking in. Denver? Chicago? Winnipeg? Are places like Utah and Montana suddenly looking good (you might be cold, but will never again need to care about a levee)?
Somehow I expect local, state and federal authorities to act like they have a clue this time around. We shall see.
The landing of the JetBlue flight last evening at LAX was a remarkable event.
We'd just finished a day long meeting at the Pasadena Hilton when I ran into a woman who asked me what I thought about all the furor on television. Since I had no idea what she was talking about, she filled me in on most of the basics and I proceeded back inside to take up a position in the lounge.
I got there just in time for the last ten minutes or so of the flight. An early evening report from the LA Times seemed to capture most of the story so I didn't bother writing anything last night.
It was missing a few small things. As the plane was descending, someone mentioned that it was likely that every cell phone on the plane was busy as people said goodbye in some way to those close to them. I wonder... but it feels like it would be true. Just a few moments before touchdown I was surprised to see the wing gear down. I'd assumed the nose gear would be susceptible to breaking off and figured they'd do a belly landing. I was very wrong on that score. The crowd in the bar broke out into applause as the plane finished gliding to a stop and then conversation turned to just how smoothly it was set down on the tarmac. What a wonderful, gentle touchdown. No reverse throttles here to get the jet slowed down as quickly as possible. They took advantage of the length at LAX to let the plane settle slowly and naturally.
What I'd forgotten about was the DirectTV feed on the airline (odd given that I'd just flown the same Burbank to JFK route a couple months ago). The reactions have been mixed today although I guess they weigh in favor of leaving the feed intact.
I know that I would have wanted the feed and would have used it to learn everything I could. Being in the dark is something that makes me very nervous. At the same time, I can see a lot of people just not wanting to know. And for the air crew, it opens a new era of challenges where the passengers may know more than the 'supposed' authority figures on the aircraft in the event of a much televised emergency. Poorly considered analysis on the ground could lead to a very difficult situation in the air.
And what happens as IP really reaches the sky? It won't simply be a one way conversation. The occasional geek has already blogged about two way media even in our current primitive state. Eventually, a carrier is going to have a problem and turn off the feed and then this is going to become a political problem.
It's a hell of a set of questions...
Completely unrelated to the event, this was the first time I'd seen HD. The picture was quite vivid and detailed from 25 feet away where I was sitting (with lots of random very late afternoon sun light leaking in from behind). No fad here, this stuff is wildly compelling.
This is silly beyond belief, but it made me laugh: Smiley. My thanks to Mr. Commonsewer.
And why was it that the first thing that popped into my mind was 'plummer'?
Timelines are quite fashionable lately. They certainly do help to see the larger picture that's not available in the moment and provide a useful historical context.
Josh Marshall has created a Hurricane Katrina timeline and is soliciting input. It's got a fair bit finger pointing detail but that's to be expected (consider yourself warned). [via Dan Gillmor]
The Washington Post also had a pretty good round up on Sunday that covered many of the events in chronological order and is perhaps a bit less pointed in laying blame. Wikipedia also has a lot of information lot of information, but no timeline yet.
Update:
This satellite image is amazing. The NASA link is pretty interesting too.
It's time (past time actually) to get my annual Green Bay Packer prediction out. Once again, I'm going with 9 and 7, and if things break right, a playoff berth. It worked out pretty well last year, especially when you consider the staggering start (1 and 4 after five weeks).
The biggest problem on offense is the line. It's hard to downplay the departures of longtime guards Mike Wahle (Carolina) and Marco Rivera (Dallas); the preseason games did nothing to dispel the notion that the line has a long way to go. On the positive side, they've got a promising future in seventh round pick Will Whitticker, who looks to start at right guard and there was some progress in the unit. Given that the rest of the offense is back, the season hinges in many respects on the play of the line and I think they'll do better than many others seem to.
The defense has been much maligned and I'm not going to add wood to that fire. The line is undersized and a potential weak point. They're a bit thin a linebacker and don't have an outstanding talent there but they're competent. The defensive backs are going to be interesting to watch (in good and bad ways). Rookies Nick Collins and Mike Hawkins are likely to get a bit of playing time, we'll have to see what happens with Marviel Underwood. I believe that Jim Bates D will be better than some expect and the real surprise of the season.
With the passing of the Chief Justice, William H. Rehnquist, the US Senate is going to be a very busy place this fall. Two new justice nominations (they'd better get the process rolling on Roberts ASAP) and the confirmation hearings for a new chief justice.
According to SCOTUSblog, the Supreme Court will resume normal operation this month with John Paul Stevens acting as the senior justice (or something like that). I wasn't sure what happened here and I'm sure I wasn't alone.
Here's one tidbit I picked up this evening, Rehnquist and fellow justice (and recent retiree) Sandra Day O'Connor were classmates in the same Stanford Law class.
Yesterday L.A. Observed pointed out the amazing five part special report Washing away from The Times-Picayune in 2002. What really struck me was this passage from The Big One, one of the articles from the second part of the series which seems to have described the events from Katrina with remarkable foresight.
"So now the lake is 5 to 8 feet higher than normal, and we're talking about a lake that's only 15 or 20 feet deep, so you're adding a third to a half as much water to the lake," Suhayda said. As the eye of the hurricane moves north, next to New Orleans but just to the east, the winds over the lake switch around to come from the north.
"As the eye impacts the Mississippi coastline, the winds are now blowing south across the lake, maybe at 50, 80, 100 mph, and all that water starts to move south," he said. "It's moving like a big army advancing toward the lake's hurricane-protection system. And then the winds themselves are generating waves, 5 to 10 feet high, on top of all that water. They'll be breaking and crashing along the sea wall."
Soon waves will start breaking over the levee.
"All of a sudden you'll start seeing flowing water. It'll look like a weir, water just pouring over the top," Suhayda said. The water will flood the lakefront, filling up low-lying areas first, and continue its march south toward the river. There would be no stopping or slowing it; pumping systems would be overwhelmed and submerged in a matter of hours.
"Another scenario is that some part of the levee would fail," Suhayda said. "It's not something that's expected. But erosion occurs, and as levees broke, the break will get wider and wider. The water will flow through the city and stop only when it reaches the next higher thing. The most continuous barrier is the south levee, along the river. That's 25 feet high, so you'll see the water pile up on the river levee."
As the floodwaters invade and submerge neighborhoods, the wind will be blowing at speeds of at least 155 mph, accompanied by shorter gusts of as much as 200 mph, meteorologists say, enough to overturn cars, uproot trees and toss people around like dollhouse toys.
The wind will blow out windows and explode many homes, even those built to the existing 110-mph building-code standards. People seeking refuge from the floodwaters in high-rise buildings won't be very safe, recent research indicates, because wind speed in a hurricane gets greater with height. If the winds are 155 mph at ground level, scientists say, they may be 50 mph stronger 100 feet above street level.
The graphic packages are worth taking a look at, especially one on the bowl that looks at how a hurricane could effect the area and another on the levees.
Our knowledge of the looming danger in southern Louisiana didn't help in any real way to make the for a better outcome (except for the insurance businesses that bailed out of the region once the writing was on the wall).
